Weekly Newsletter #48/2014
It has been just a few weeks since the equity markets tumbled for 8% and more within less than a month. A lot of market participants were feared to see the beginning of the hausses’ end, having missed the opportunity to sell into the last breaths of the liquidity bubble. But from mid October on the markets started to rise again – mostly faster than they fell before. And so we have for example surpassed the old highs of the S&P 500 already, approaching 2100 points in the leading US equity index.
What was or is respectively even more remarkable is the sentiment and how it changed. And is not the massive fall of the sentiment in the course of the markets correction, but the rapid rise afterwards. Maybe it is the lack of investment alternatives or the believe in the blessing and the endless offer of cheap liquidity. But Bulls already outnumber Bears with more than 4:1 again, leaving the sentiment at an absolute all time high.
Based on investors sentiment market participants have never been so optimistic on stocks than nowadays. We don’t know, what makes them so bullish nowadays, but we know, that extremely high sentiments are more a sign of danger than they were a harbinger of stable markets in the past.
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