Weekly Newsletter #8/2015

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There are a lot of important topics out there that investors have to deal with at the moment. And all of them could influence the markets quite heavily. Whereas the situation around Greece seems to calm down a bit, the Ukraine is still „on fire“. In the US the expected rate increases seem a bit more improbable since yesterday, as the minutes of the last Fed meeting showed, that officials tend to hold the interest rates near zero for a longer time. And even if the recordings show that the reasoning is mainly based on the situation outside of the US, the US economy looks more fragile than most of the people out there are thinking. There are a lot of signs, that growth in the US is not as good, as the FED is signaling. This makes interest rate increases even more implausible. And last but not least we have the oil price, which is maybe one of the most discussed topics out there. Countless expectations where the oil price will head are published every day and it will be the same game as always. Time will proof most of them to be totally wrong. Nobody seriously can tell where the oil price will be at a certain point in time. Even if someone will be right on his projection, this will be pure coincidence. It is the same with all asset prices. The Financial markets are much too complex to project prices for a certain point in time. You can tell, if prices are cheap or not by doing your homework and apply sophisticated valuation methods in combination with proper research and common sense. But never try to predict if a price will go up or down in short term. Better try to invest, not to speculate.